MATCHUP · SIMULATOR RESULT

Greninja vs. Lucario: Who wins?

Of 100 simulated battles (level 50, standard sets), Greninja wins 64 and Lucario 36.

Assumptions: level 50, no items, neutral nature, first regular ability, last four level-up moves, Gen 9 mechanics, greedy AI on both sides. For close matchups the win rate can vary by roughly 10 to 15 points between simulation runs.

Greninja — modern sprite

Greninja

WaterDark
VS
Lucario — modern sprite

Lucario

FightingSteel

WIN RATE

GreninjaLucario

WHY IT PLAYS OUT THIS WAY

Greninja is faster than Lucario (142 vs. 110 Speed) and moves first.

Best answer of Greninja: Extrasensory deals 29–34.5% of Lucario's HP per hit.

Best answer of Lucario: Bone Rush deals 30.6–36.7% of Greninja's HP per hit.

SPEED CHECK

Greninja
142
Lucario
110

Greninja moves first.

BATTLE LENGTH

4turns (median)

Half of the 100 battles were over within 4 turns.

Greninja → Lucario

  • Extrasensory42–50 HP29–34.5%×1
  • Aerial Ace29–35 HP20–24.1%×1

Lucario → Greninja

  • Bone Rush45–54 HP30.6–36.7%×1
  • Meteor Mash38–45 HP25.9–30.6%×½

TRANSPARENCY

Simulated standard sets

Greninja

Spikes · Aerial Ace · Substitute · Extrasensory

Lucario

Bone Rush · Swords Dance · Heal Pulse · Meteor Mash

Both sides: level 50, last four level-up moves, no items, neutral natures and first regular abilities. 100 seeded battles with greedy AI on both sides.

Think it goes differently? Simulate it yourself

The same pairing is preloaded in the battle simulator — change moves, items, abilities and level, then fight it out turn by turn.

Open battle simulator
Q&A

Greninja. At level 50 Greninja reaches 142 Speed, Lucario only 110 — so Greninja moved first in every simulated battle.

Rarely. Of 100 simulated battles (level 50, standard sets), Greninja wins 64 and Lucario only 36. Custom moves or items can change the picture — try it in the simulator above.

MORE SIMULATED MATCHUPS
Open the Versus Calc